- Analyses
- Sentiment du marché
US dollar bullish bets fall on disappointing US economy performance
US dollar net long position fell to $12.6 billion from $18.2 billion against the major currencies in the previous week, as the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 9 shows. Economic reports during the week confirmed that the US economic growth is slowing. The services sector growth was weaker than expected with ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI falling to 53.5 in January from 55.8 in December. Manufacturing activity contraction was indicated by a further fall in Factory Orders in December which exceeded the decline in the previous month: less volatile factory orders excluding transportation fell 0.8% on month compared with 0.7% reduction in November. The jobs report indicated the growth in nonfarm employment also slowed as anticipated, with private payrolls rising by 158 thousand in January instead of expected 183 thousand jobs. On the positive side unemployment fell to 4.9% from 5% and average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in January compared with no change in December. Improving labor market continues to serve as one of the justifications for policy makers’ rising inflationary expectations and shift to contractionary monetary policy. However, the slowing US economic growth, continued slump in commodity prices and turmoil in global stocks markets make it less likely that the Federal Reserve will implement the 100 basis point rate hike announced in December policy statement. Investors cut the bullish bets on US dollar as market participants revised downward the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. As is evident from the Sentiment table, sentiment improved for all major currencies except for the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. And the yen continues to remain the only major currency held net long against the US dollar.
The bearish euro sentiment improved substantially as net short bets narrowed by $2.9bn to $8.9bn. However euro’s share rose to over 70% of long US dollar position. The euro net short position fell as investors increased long positions and covered shorts by 18595 and 5164 contracts respectively. The bullish Japanese yen sentiment intensified on the back of heightened haven demand as the slump in global equities continued. The net long bets in Japanese yen rose by $0.8bn to $4.6bn. Investors reduced the gross longs by 6297 contracts and reduced gross shorts by 12284. Sentiment improved considerably for the British Pound with the net short position narrowing by $0.7bn to $3.2bn. Investors cut both the gross longs and gross shorts.
The bearish sentiment remained essentially unchanged for the Canadian dollar with the net short position widening by $13 million to $3.7bn. Net short bets in Canadian dollar became the second biggest after bearish bets in euro. Investors cut both the gross longs and gross shorts. The sentiment toward the Australian dollar improved dramatically with net short bets narrowing by $1.4bn to $0.39 bn. Investors increased the gross longs and cut the gross shorts. The sentiment continued to deteriorate for the Swiss franc with net short bets rising by $0.3bn to of $0.9bn. Investors cut both the gross longs and gross shorts.
Nouvel outil analytique exclusif
N'imorte quelle gamme de dates - de 1 jour à 1 an
N'importe quel groupe de trading - Forex, actions, indices etc.
NB:
Cet aperçu a un caractère instructif et didactique, publié gratuitement. Toutes les données, comprises dans l'aperçu, sont reçues de sources publiques, reconnues comme plus ou moins fiables. En outre, rien ne garantit que les informations indiquées sont complètes et précises. Les aperçus ne sont pas mis à jour. L'ensemble de l'information contenue dans chaque aperçu, y compris l'opinion, les indicateurs, les graphiques et tout le reste, est fourni uniquement à des fins de familiarisation et n'est pas un conseil financier ou une recommandation. Tout le texte entier et sa partie, ainsi que les graphiques ne peuvent pas être considérés comme une offre de faire une transaction sur chaque actif. IFC Markets et ses employés, dans n'importe quelle circonstance, ne sont pas responsables de toute action prise par quelqu'un d'autre pendant ou après la lecture de l’aperçu.
Derniers Sentiments
- 18mars2021Top Gagnants / Perdants: Dollar canadien et yen japonais
Au cours des 7 derniers jours, les prix du pétrole, des métaux non ferreux et d'autres matières premières minérales, bien qu'ils aient diminué, mais sont restés à un niveau élevé. Grâce à cela, il y a eu un renforcement des monnaies des pays de matières premières: le dollar canadien, les...
- 10mars2021Top Gagnants / Perdants: Dollar canadien et dollar néo-zélandais
Au cours des 7 derniers jours, les cotations du pétrole ont continué de croître. Dans ce contexte, il y a eu un renforcement des monnaies des pays producteurs de pétrole: le rouble russe et le dollar canadien. Le dollar néo-zélandais s'est affaibli après la publication d'indicateurs économiques...
- 4mars2021Top Gagnants / Perdants: Dollar américain et rand sud-africain
Au cours des 7 derniers jours, les prix du pétrole ont continué d'augmenter. Les métaux précieux, y compris l'or, ont chuté de prix. Dans ce contexte, il y a eu une augmentation des actions des compagnies pétrolières, le renforcement du rouble russe et l'affaiblissement des dollars australien...