USD/JPY Analyse technique | USD/JPY Trading: 2015-08-27 | IFCM France
IFC Markets Courtier CFD en ligne

USD/JPY Analyse technique - USD/JPY Trading: 2015-08-27

Yen expected to weaken as risk aversion diminishes

The fundamentals of Japanese economy indicate yen weakness against the US dollar will continue in near term. The second quarter GDP in Japan contracted at 1.6% annual rate, and inflation report on Friday is expected to show consumer price index fell in July. The GDP fell largely due to declining private consumption, which accounts for 60% of economy and fell 0.8% from previous quarter. The fall in private consumption reflected worsened consumer sentiment from 41.7 in June to 40.3 in July, where the consumer confidence index measures consumers’ expectations for the next six months on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading of 100 indicates that all respondents see their living standards improving. On the other hand, the second estimate of Q2 GDP released on Thursday showed US economy grew at 3.2% annualized rate, faster than the 2.3% rate of the first estimate. This will add strength to the US dollar, which lost some of its support in recent days as investors revised downward expectation the Federal Reserve will hike the interest rate in September.

USDJPY

The pair USD/JPY had been trading in the roughly 120 -125 yen per dollar range in the last two months. The price started declining after the release of Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting minutes last Wednesday indicated policy makers were concerned slowing Chinese economy and falling commodity prices increased downside risks for US inflation. This was interpreted as a signal the Fed will likely not raise the interest rates in September. In subsequent days market sentiment deteriorated on worsened global growth outlook and concerns of competitive devaluations by emerging economies on that backdrop, triggering a global selloff in stock markets. The demand for safe haven yen increased as risk aversion grew, driving the price lower. The price broke below the 200-day moving average on Black Monday and closed below it the next two days. On Wednesday markets rebounded, the price continued rising on falling safe haven demand for the yen. The price is back above 200-day moving average and rising. The RSI-Bars oscillator is also rising. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the pair closes above the lower boundary of the price range at 120.369. A pending order to buy can be placed above that level. The stop loss can be placed below the 200-day moving average at 119.455. We recommend moving the stop loss to a trailing distance of 1 yen after breaking even. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

PositionBuy
Buy stopabove 120.369
Stop lossbelow 119.455
Académie de trading IFCM - Nouvelle ère dans l'éducation Forex
Réussissez votre cours:
  • Obtenir un certificat
trading academy

Meilleur service et meilleures conditions de trading pour le trading

Nous sommes prêts à vous aider pour toute question 24 heures sur 24.

NB:
Cet aperçu a un caractère instructif et didactique, publié gratuitement. Toutes les données, comprises dans l'aperçu, sont reçues de sources publiques, reconnues comme plus ou moins fiables. En outre, rien ne garantit que les informations indiquées sont complètes et précises. Les aperçus ne sont pas mis à jour. L'ensemble de l'information contenue dans chaque aperçu, y compris l'opinion, les indicateurs, les graphiques et tout le reste, est fourni uniquement à des fins de familiarisation et n'est pas un conseil financier ou une recommandation. Tout le texte entier et sa partie, ainsi que les graphiques ne peuvent pas être considérés comme une offre de faire une transaction sur chaque actif. IFC Markets et ses employés, dans n'importe quelle circonstance, ne sont pas responsables de toute action prise par quelqu'un d'autre pendant ou après la lecture de l’aperçu.

Close support
Call to Telegram Call to Skype Call to WhatsApp Call Back